Paris climate goals 'out of reach' unless rapid changes occur, UN climate report warns
"Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C will be beyond reach," scientist Valérie Masson-Delmotte told reporters as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a monumental new report on Monday.
Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, world leaders committed to trying to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century because problems mount quickly after that.
The new report, which the United Nations calls a “code red for humanity,” warns that time is running out to save the planet. It gives world leaders the latest up-to-date information about human-caused drivers of climate change since 2013, as well as the latest trends in atmospheric, oceanic and land surface science.
More than 200 scientists reviewed over 14,000 studies for the report.
This report is the culmination of a marathon five-year assessment, updating scientists' best projections for global warming, and discusses feedback loops and other Earth dynamics that have an impact.
'Getting worse'
"Many of the changes observed in the climate are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years, and some of the changes already set in motion—such as continued sea-level rise—are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years," the IPCC said.
Shrinking ice and heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms are already visible impacts of climate change. All of these trends will get worse, the report predicted.
For example, the kind of heatwave that used to happen only once every 50 years now happens once a decade. If the world warms another degree Celsius, it will happen twice every seven years, the report said.
“It’s just guaranteed that it’s going to get worse,” said report co-author Linda Mearns, a senior climate scientist at the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research. “I don’t see any area that is safe ... Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.”
IPCC scientists say "the role of human influence on the climate system is undisputed.”
Five scenarios of global warming
The report outlines five different future scenarios based on how much the world reduces carbon emissions:
- a future with sweeping and quick pollution cuts;
- intense pollution cuts but not quite as massive;
- a scenario with moderate emissions;
- a scenario where current plans to make small pollution reductions continue;
- a continued increase in carbon pollution.
Under each scenario, the report said, the world will cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming mark in the 2030s, earlier than some past predictions. Warming has accelerated in recent years, data shows.
In three scenarios, the world will also likely exceed 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial times with far worse heat waves, droughts and flood-inducing downpours.
"The only way to limit global warming is net-zero CO2 emissions," Masson-Delmotte said. "It's all in our hands."
Watch the press conference in the video player above.
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