ADB updates economic growth forecast for Tajikistan for 2020

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019 Update that was released today, in particular, notes that economic growth in developing Asia remains robust but prospects have further dimmed and risks to the region’s economies are rising as trade and investment weaken.

The report forecasts economic growth in the 45 countries of developing Asia at 5.4% this year before nudging up to 5.5% in 2020.

Meanwhile, ADO 2019 Update report notes that Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow at 7.0% in both 2019 and 2020.  

In its ADO 2019, ADB forecast Tajikistan’s gross domestic product growth to moderate to 7.0% in 2019 and 6.5% in 2020, from the 7.3% economic growth rate recorded in 2018.  

Last year, the economic growth rate of Tajikistan was 7.3 percent, and in 2017, it was 7.1 percent.   

ADO 2019’s growth forecast for Tajikistan in 2019 and 2020 rested on expected moderation of capital spending, rebound in remittances, and higher exports from additional electricity generation and improving economic relations with neighboring countries.  Downside risks stem from weak balance sheets at two large banks and several state-owned enterprises.

Meanwhile, ADB analysts have significantly changed their forecasts regarding inflation processes in Tajikistan. 

Thus, the ADO 2019 report noted that inflation in Tajikistan is forecast to accelerate to 7.5% in 2019, reflecting expected exchange rate flexibility, higher consumer demand from increasing remittances, and possibly faster monetary expansion from a potential second round of bank recapitalization. In 2020, inflation will likely reach 7.0%, according to the ADO 2019 report. 

The ADO 2019 Update report, however, forecasts inflation in Tajikistan to accelerate to 8.0 percent this year and 7.5 percent in 2020.  

Last year, inflation in Tajikistan stood at 5.4 percent.