Water deficit reportedly threatens national security of Kazakhstan

The Institute of Geography and Water Security of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Kazakhstan estimates the total annual river discharge of Kazakhstan as 102.3 cubic kilometers.

The river discharge (amount of water that flows through a riverbed over the year) is the first indicator of the volume of freshwater resources.

This estimation is nothing else but the average value for the period from 1974 to 2015.

The point is that the river discharge data for any given year carries little information.  And it is because the indicator varies greatly in time: there can be dry, average water, and wet years.

Compared to many countries, Kazakhstan has fewer river resources.  The shortage of water resources is related to the sharp continental climate, whose peculiarities are scanty precipitation and hot summer.

The river discharge is formed and used within hydroeconomic basins (HEB). There are eight HEBs in Kazakhstan, their names are based on major rivers and basins that form them. The problem is that shared river resources are distributed among the basins quite unequally.

61 percent of total volume is located mainly in the east and southeast of the country, in Yertis and Balkhash-Alakol basins. The situation in the south looks this way: the Aral-Syrdarya basin ensures only 18 per cent of the water flow, while Shu-Talas basin – only 4 per cent. In the west, only 11 per cent form in the Zhaiyk-Caspian basin.

In the north and in the center, the situation is even worse.  The Yesil, Tobyl-Torgai and Nura-Sarysu basins, located in these parts of Kazakhstan, have only 6 percent of joint reserves as estimated of Yesil, Togyl-Torgai and Nura-Sarysuu village, according to the estimations of the Institute of Geography and Water Security of Kazakhstan.

The unequal distribution of the total discharge is half of the trouble. Another part of the problem is that a half of renewable freshwater resources of Kazakhstan is formed from the water inflow from neighboring countries.  All major rivers in the country originate abroad: Irtysh (Yertis) and Ili in China, Syrdarya in Uzbekistan, Ural (Zhaiyk) in Russia, Shu and Talas in Kyrgyzstan.

Nevertheless, freshwater is enough so far.  According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), the baseline water stress is estimated in Kazakhstan as medium-high (20% to 40%).  

The country is facing high water stress when it uses over 40 percent of available inventory. Given this intensity of water intake, the resources have no time to restore naturally, and thus they run dry. Moreover, water demand exceeds supply.  If over 80 percent of resources are used, it means extreme water deficit or water crisis.

Water demand is usually understood as water withdrawal, while water supply means available resources of freshwater. In the usual sense, deficit is when supply exceeds demand.  All water from the rivers that form the main portion of water supply cannot be taken because they will run dry immediately. Not more than 40 per cent can be taken, perfectly.  

Based on the data provided by the institute of geography and water security, water stress in Kazakhstan amounts to 24 per cent – 25 cubic kilometers are used out of 102.3 cubic kilometers, which coincides with the WRI indicator.  However, the picture is not the same everywhere. The excessive load on river discharge is in Aral-Syrdarya and Shu-Talas basins, where 57 percent of freshwater stock is being withdrawn.  Meanwhile, water stress in Nura-Sarysu basin reaches as high as 88 percent.

Economic sectors that use water in large quantities suffer from water deficit in the first place.

The national security is the condition of protection of national interests of Kazakhstan from real and potential threats, ensuring dynamic development of a human and a citizen, society and the state. One of the types of national security is environmental security.  It is a condition of protection of vital interests and rights of a human and a citizen, society and the state from threats emerging due to anthropogenic and natural impacts on the environment.

Experts note that a considerable part of the Central Asian people resides in rural areas and practice agriculture.  So, the question of their water supply is a vital one.  A growing water deficit that cannot be resolved quickly and in combination with unsettled border issues reportedly can lead to a massive explosion and new conflicts in the region.